The Calm after the Storm!
We are going to have a calm week after the amazing week that we just passed through! Last week with central banks' meetings, Earnings reports, and heavy financial data, we saw new record highs every day in Wall Street. The week ahead economic calendar will be so light, and the market will try to digest the data and event of last week and stabilize itself. Let's check the most important data of the week ahead!
US Producer inflation – Tuesday
After the sixth consecutive all-time high in September, we are waiting to see a little bit of ease in the producer inflation numbers for both headline and core data, to see them unchanged or even at the lower levels. Even though we can see a bit of cooldown in the pace of spreading, it is still in a multi-year high. The PPI increasing since the start of 2021, causing increases in the trade price measures, and with ongoing supply shortages, increasing the inflation indexes.
US Consumer Price Index - Wednesday
Same as producer inflation, we are waiting to see a bit of decrease in consumer inflation as well. Expected Headline CPI inflation is at 5.9%, and core CPI inflation is a bit lower at 4.4% on the annual scale. This week we have to watch the detailed numbers, especially Construction, new and used vehicles, and service sectors inflation. However, October inflation numbers are unlikely to make any changes in our overall inflation outlook. Inflation numbers, just will be another reason to increase the US Dollar demand and support the bulls.
GDP and Manufacturing activities in the UK - Thursday
Gross Domestic Product and Manufacturing Production numbers of United Kingdom will publish on Thursday. GDP, the economy’s most important figure, in third quarter's initial estimates is expected to grow by 1.5% and 6.8%, respectively on seasonal and annual scales. On the Manufacturing Production front, waiting to see a slowdown in September to 0.1% monthly, from 0.5% of last month. Both numbers will put more pressure on British Pound against its crosses.
US JOLTS - Friday
Despite a dipping slightly in August, it is still in historical highs to encourage employees to start looking after better and higher-paid jobs. A high quit rate is one of the reasons for higher job opportunity numbers, as workers are confident, they can voluntarily leave their current job and find gainful employment elsewhere. For September also still expected to stay around the same levels to confirm the ongoing labor shortage issue. However, if in the next months also it stays higher, can alter the path of monetary policy tightening going forward.
