Risks of the best-performing currency of the year
Ruble past 70-marker vs. the dollar for the first time since May 2022. This confirms the idea of its reverse in the year ahead. While the Russian Ruble was one of few currencies that has outperformed the US Dollar this year, due to the sanctions' effect, lower Oil prices and a further easing of capital controls are likely to see the Ruble inverse its gains this year.
Sanctions against Russian Oil and Gas started, and with a price cap for Russian oil, sent the Ruble to its weakest level since early May, above 70 against the US dollar on Wednesday's first trading hours. After reversing back from its multi-year low of around 49.60, recorded on Jun 29, Ruble lost almost 42% against the US dollar. After its reverse, above 60, bulls got more strength and, until reaching the 70 levels, raised much faster. Just during this week, the Ruble has already lost more than 7% against the greenback.
In recent months Russian export revenues have fallen with lower Gas prices, and now with the EU oil embargo, they limit the country's overall revenues. Therefore, the rube, the world's best-performing currency this year, primarily due to capital controls and an initial collapse in imports, can be one of the worst-performing currencies in 2023.
From the technical point of view, USDRUB is moving in a clear bullish trend in most trading charts, with the next resistance around 74.
