EIA Energy Outlook and Market updates!
After Monday's Chinese CPI numbers and today's US data, Global share hit new record highs as these numbers easing concerns about FED possible tapering because of higher inflation.
Besides today's CPI data, last night we had EIA's short-term energy Outlook, API weekly report, and today also EIA weekly inventory reports. In contrast, Biden earlier today commented that he would not ask American producers to increase the Oil production, and it was also lifted the market prices.
The general overview of the August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains some critical points like ongoing concerns about the virus situation and its effect on the recovery path. On the other hand, the US economy is improving and looks pretty healthy, according to the latest economic data. Estimates for US GDP in 2021 is 6.6% growth and 5.0% in 2022.
"Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $75 per barrel (b) in July, up to $2/b from June and up to $25/b from the end of 2020. Brent prices have been rising this year as a result of steady draws on global oil inventories, which averaged 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) during the first half of 2021 (1H21) and remained at almost 1.4 million b/d in July." (EIA Report)
EIA is also expecting oil prices to stay steady around the current level for 2021, with $72 on average. But for 2022, as both US and OPEC+ production is increasing and demand is decreasing, the outlook for 2022 price is around $66.
About production, EIA estimated OPEC crude Oil production to stay 26.5Mbpd up from 25.0Mbpd in 2020. Data also show that US Oil production would be 11.1Mbpd in 2021, and estimates for 2022 production is 11.8Mbpd.
We can see the same signal in the chart as mentioned estimates for the rest of the year in the mid-term from the technical side. Price is increasing in the chart with RSI at 57 and OBV trend line which started to rise again. The current level of $69, which is 50 MA line, and the crucial and pivot point, which breathing bove this level can remain the bullish trend alive.
