Massive Global economic data!
Last week, Evergrande was the market sentiment creator and destroyer. In the week ahead, still, news about Evergrande will be important for market participants. ECB Forum on Central Banking on Wednesday will be in the spotlight, while we have massive economic data all across the week, with the Chinese holiday on Friday. Let's have a look at the most important events of the coming days.
1- US Durable Goods Order – Monday
While Monday the BoJ minutes will publish and should provide more information on the Central bank's outlook on the economy, the US Durable Goods Orders will be more important to watch. As the reopening process progress, for many businesses to replenish their depleted inventories, should keep Durable Goods use, and orders strong. Excluding aircraft and defense goods, orders had a remarkable recovery and now we are expecting to see the 53 gross new orders reported by Boeing for August. These great expected data should support the stock markets, however, bulls will be limited since it will make tapering start faster.
2- US Consumer Confidence - Tuesday
For many investors and market participants, it is one of the most important economic factors. After a sharp drop to 113.8 in August, for the week ahead, we are expecting a bit of recovery in September numbers. However, this recovery will be limited as many places and services resumed mask requirements, and unemployment benefits already expired on September 6. It must be positive for the US Dollar index and support its current overall uptrend.
3- ECB Forum on Central Banking – Wednesday
Event of the week, where major investors in financial markets will be looking to find any clue about the central bank's outlook on the future of the global economy and their insights about taken actions, is the ECB Forum on Central Banking on Wednesday. In this virtual panel, BoE Governor Bailey, ECB President Laggard, BoJ Governor Kuroda, and Fed Chair Powell, will speak.
4- Gross Domestic Product – Thursday
The most important economic index will clear the final US and UK GDP numbers for the second quarter. After a sharp decline in the second quarter in 2020, in UK and United States, we saw fast economic recovery in both countries. For the final numbers of second-quarter GDP in 2021, we are expecting to see that economy performed markedly better than was expected at the beginning of the year, despite concerns over a slowdown in the Q3 data.
5- Manufacturing PMIs – Friday
In almost all developed economies we’ve already seen significant signs of weakness in the past few months. In the week ahead, we will have Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index numbers from China, European countries, and the United States. And now while we can see growing signs of weakness as we head into the winter, with energy prices rise, mostly in Europe, it can prompt production shutdowns. There is a chance that this could well start to get reflected in September PMI numbers. This expected weakness, supposed to put the German DAX and other European stocks a bit more under pressure.
