Weekly Outlook, 20-24 December

Weekly Outlook, 20-24 December
Market Outlook
Ahura Chalki
Author:
Ahura Chalki
Published on: 19.12.2021 15:43 (UTC)
Post reading time: 2.23 min
321

Producers and Christmas! 

 

Merry Christmas! In the short week ahead with Christmas Holiday on Friday, markets will try to digest the central banks' decisions, while production data, GDP, Retail Sales, and Personal Spending from different economies around the globe, will tell us what we have to expect from financial markets. On the other hand, Omicron spreading so fast, and concerns growing about that, with more countries setting restrictive rules. And IFC Markets' update ahead of Christmas at the end. 

 

US Q3 Final GDP - Wednesday

The final edition of US third-quarter data will be out on Wednesday, with a modest upward revision from 2% to 2.1%. This light upward is expected mostly because of an increase in residential and nonresidential construction, factory inventories, and government spending. Given all these, it is still much less than the earlier 2.6% estimates. Supply chain and Energy market shortage, inflation, and Labor market problems altogether with Covid-19 concerns, affected demand in the economy that is extremely sensitive to the consumers' sentiment. 


 

UK Q3 GDP - Wednesday 

After the rebound in the second quarter, market waiting bit slowdown in the third quarter's numbers, at the same time we are still optimistic to see 1.5% increase, unlike earlier 1.3% expectations. The main reasons for weaker GDP in the third quarter are the Energy market shortages, chip shortages in the Car industry, and generally in the production chain. Sterling was under pressure mostly in the past month, and now with growth expected in GDP numbers and BoE hawkish policies, it can get a bit more support. 

 

US Personal Income & Spending - Thursday

Even if this week's numbers cannot change the FED decisions, because they had a meeting just a week ago, however, Personal Spending can clear it for us that what extent torrid inflation has been weighing on real personal spending. 5.7% PCE number expectations for November, can be the highest since 1982. On the income front and while Since January, wages & salaries have already jumped 7.6%, and it is the largest annual gain in 42 years, we are waiting for another 0.5% increase in November numbers. These expected numbers are supposed to help the US dollar's bulls.

 

Canadian GDP - Thursday

Canadian GDP again returned to its growing pat after a few months' break! The labor market is strong and retail sales increasing, all signaling that we have to wait for better GDP numbers. 0.8% expected increasing GDP in the third quarter with increasing inflation and developing labor market, can lift the expectations from Bank of Canada to have more Hawkish policies. Despite all these expectations, the Canadian dollar can be under pressure, because other central banks already started tightening policies. 

 


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