Economic data in the spotlight.
In the week ahead, besides the latest earnings reports, we mostly have to check the economic calendar, where the critical data is due to publish and make it clearer how the economic recovery is going ahead, and should we still be worried about inflation or not. Let's check the essential data and the market expectations in the week ahead.
China Retail Sales and Industrial production- Monday 17
The only leading economy which kept growing through pandemic owes its steady rebound to its better consumer spending. Chinese consumer spending rebounding to its pre-pandemic level. A month ago, Chinese retail sales increased 34.2%, and industrial production was 14.1% stronger. We expect to see the same 25% increase in retail sales and a 10% raise for industrial production.
RBA Meeting Minutes - Tuesday 18
Same as other central banks, RBA also had no change in its monetary policy and interest rate. For the coming meeting also we are not expecting any changes in the interest rates. But it is possible to start tapering the asset purchasing in the second half of the year, as RBA already increased the GDP expectation and economic recovery. Aussie moves in a side movement, steady and above the critical level of 0.77. Any uptrend or downtrend in the long-term needs to break out the current range of 0.7655 and 0.7840.
UK Unemployment data – Tuesday 18
From 5.1% unemployment in December, the February rate slipped back to 4.9%. As the UK is one of the leading countries in the vaccination and reopening progressing, jobless claims are falling; the outlook is positive for the UK employment numbers. Now Cable is looking to touch again the February high above 1.4235, after breaking out its latest created range.
Fed meeting minutes - Wednesday 19
The FOMC minutes should provide further guidance for 2021, and it is essential for the market participant, especially with disappointing employment and inflation numbers. That's why now the FOMC member's outlook and comments are getting more critical for investors. USD Index returned to a downtrend; however, 90.30 is the important level for a future downtrend; the Index needs to breach under that, in return, back above 91.32 can change the trend again for higher numbers.
US Weekly Unemployment Claims - Thursday 20
According to last week's published numbers, jobless claims fell back to 437K, and the four-week average also decreased to 534K. We expect more decrease in the jobless claims for the week ahead as already most Americans are vaccinated, and businesses are starting to hire. Despite last week's volatility, S&P 500 again returned to its dominated uptrend and looking for its all-time higher above 4,245. Positive economic data in the week ahead are also expecting to support the trend.
Germany and France PMI data - Friday 21
While the service sector still under pressure, the manufacturing industry is still increasing. And now, while the significant parts of the German economy locked down until June, it's hard to see too much in the way of an improvement in the May numbers. It is the same for France numbers as well. With the latest weakness in the US Dollar, Euro is continuing its gain and holding above the 1.21 level. As the European economy is slowly improving, for the week ahead also with positive numbers from Europe, we are expecting to see the February high above 1.2245 for EURUSD, once again.
