Tesla ahead of any predictions
Tesla, Inc. is expected to publish its earnings report on 01/26/2022 after market close. The report will cover the fiscal Quarter ending Dec 2021. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on six analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for this quarter is $1.68. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.24.
So far, tesla could crash every expectation in 2021, therefore expecting another new record is becoming a habit for its fans and investors. And it happens while most of the other big players in the car industry, including Toyota, Mercedes, etc. could not achieve their production goals due to global supply chain issues.
According to the published data by the company, Tesla delivered 308,600 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2021, much more than 270,000 analysis' expectations and up nearly 30% from the third quarter's 242,300 units. Also, the 936,000 delivered vehicles in 2021, which is almost twice more than the 2020 shipment, were more than 897,000 vehicles estimates. Of these delivered cars, 90% were Model 3 and Model Y. The rest were higher-priced vehicles (Model S and X).
After years of believing in the management and Mr. Elon Muck’s plans, Tesla finally could turn to a profit in the third quarter of 2019 for its first time, and since that, they managed to double their deliveries every year. And now, the goal is to reach the 20 million electric vehicles shipment a year by 2030. “Let’s make the roaring ’20s happen!” was the tweet of Mr. Musk.
To achieve this goal, just opening new factories, and production lines in Germany and Texas will not be enough. Increasing the demand and finding enough market share also will be matter. Volkswagen, GM, Ford, and Chinese EV startups are the main Tesla competitors to get their market share, especially in the lower-priced models. Lucid Air and Porsche Taycan also are the main competitors in the expensive models. Volkswagen's most popular EV in Europe, the ID.3 has the biggest market share in Europe, therefore Tesla's factory in Berlin will have a very hard job to get its market share. Chinese Nio and Xpeng also delivered 25,034 and 41,751 vehicles in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the Chinese domestic market also will be harder for Tesla to compete in the coming years.
Earnings preview in more detail:
EPS: The Wall Street consensus estimate is $2.3 income per share. Estimize’s (the financial estimate crowdsourcing website), prediction is slightly higher with a profit of $2.51 per share.
Revenue: The Wall Street consensus for this quarter is $17.112 billion. And Estimize, expecting higher revenue of $17.416 billion.
Share price one year target: $1074.69 - $1,400.
Stock Movement analysis:
The current price is 25% lower than Tesla's November high at 1,242.53 and trading at a very important level around $900-950. Breaching under this level can put the price under pressure towards $780. Before this level, EMA200 at around 852.00 is the first and key support. A negative report can bring these levels into the spotlight. On the other hand, while an expected positive report can support the chart's bulls we also have to follow the overall market sentiment. From the volume perspective, as we can see in the bellow figure, volume and 20 DMA are getting closer together which is the signal of re-balancing in the market between the market volume and share price. Therefore, raising from this level can be more likely.
