Price can rise, or Economic growth concerns will stop it?
While Putin jokes with Westerners about being blamed for all problems in the world, the economy is not joking with anyone, and hungry bellies can not laugh at jokes.
So far, the war in Ukraine has killed thousands and displaced more than 14 million people in Ukraine and, if it continues, can displace other millions from poor and mainly African counties to look for food in Europe. European is putting pressure on Russia with sanctions, and Russia with blocking the grain shipments from Ukraine's Black Sea ports. These conflicts increased the rapidly soaring oil, natural gas, grains, cooking oil, and fertilizers.
With increasing prices, now European Union plans to start jointly buying gas before winter. Europeans are trying to end their reliance on Russian fossil fuels, but before 2027 it will be so unrealistic to see it happen. So far, these tensions have led to the cut-off of Poland, Bulgaria, and Finland gas by Russia, as they denied to pay in Russian Ruble.
American companies have taken advantage of this situation to supply an extra 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of liquefied natural gas to Europe this year. As you know, it is a political decision and not economically viable. So far, the Eurozone imports 155 bcm of gas from Russia each year.
Whatever happens in the long term, for now, we are mostly fear of higher inflation, and in the short time, Europe remains to depend on Russian fossil fuels.
We should not forget that getting closer to the summer and its holiday usually means more driving and travel and more oil demand. Therefore, even if ending the winter cold will decrease the need for gas, more oil demand and EU efforts to replenish reserves before the winter cold can maintain energy market tensions.
From the technical point of view, the price remains bullish, moving above 20 DMA, while the market volume remains reasonable, and the MACD histogram strongly forms above the 0-level.
