Can CAD dive under 1.20
After last week's Canadian weaker than estimates labor markets' data, Canadian markets must be careful about BoC's June 9 meeting this week. Since data on Friday was disappointing, we do not expect the Bank of Canada to vote for any other Hawkish policy, holding current levels rate levels and government bond's purchasing.
In the last meeting in April, BoC was the first major central bank that started the Hawkish policies by cutting down the Bond purchasing to weekly $3B from the prevouse 4B Canadian dollars, tarting late April 2021. In the press conference after the meeting, Mr. Macklem emphasized that the central bank will stay committed to low-interest rates as long as the economy has returned to a strong position.
Two sides of a Canadian economic coin are employment numbers and the latest improvement in vaccination. While the fast vaccination brings a bright outlook for the Canadian economy, the labor market still looks worrying. The first-quarter GDP was lower (5.6%) than estimates (6.7%), the same as economic activity data, while the unemployment rate rose to 8.2% in May from 7.5% recorded in March 2021. However, with the fast vaccination roll-out, we expect the Bank of Canada to hold for now but remain on track to ease the asset purchasing from the last quarter of the year even to end it by year-end and start raising the rates from the second half of 2022.
According to our expectations from Canadian economy to return on track in the second half of the year, especially with a 60% vaccination rate in the country, while it is still hardly damaged from the pandemic and has a long way for full recovery, it is so optimistic to see the rush in BoC Hawkish messages, however as it was the beginner, its also expected to see the BoC at the forefront of the global rate tightening cycle.
USDCAD technical overview
USDCAD is losing 18% since its latest downtrend rally started 15 months ago. And while fundamental data, still supposed to support the Canadian dollar, technical indicators are also moving in the same direction. Currently, 1.2000 is the critical support level, and breaching under this level to see the CAD rate in a stronger position, and vice versa. Failure to break this level, primarily if Thursday US CPI raise, will bring the 1.2700 area in the spotlight.
از اینکه تحلیل های بنیاید دقیق تر ارایه می شود متشکرم ولی اگر دیدگاه معامله گران در کنار تحلیل بنیادی در خصوص جفت ارزها ارایه بشود خیلی خوب است